复旦大学中国研究院院长张维为
Dean of China Institute at Fudan University
2023-12-21 16:50

各位智库同仁,各位朋友,我今天这个发言的题目是中国式现代化的成功与“一带一路”。

Dear colleagues from think tanks and friends, the topic of my speech today is The Success of Chinese-style Modernization and the Belt and Road Initiative.

 

我们“一带一路”走过了极不平常的10年,在共商共建共享原则指引下,“一带一路”已经形成了3000多个合作项目,拉动了近万亿美元的投资,成为全球规模最大、范围最广的国际合作平台,也成为构建人类命运共同体的最大的实践平台。这一切离不开中国式现代化的巨大成功。

The Belt and Road Initiative has gone through an extraordinary 10 years. Under the guidance of the principle of extensive consultation,joint contribution,shared benefits, the Belt and Road has launched more than 3000 cooperation projects, attracted nearly a trillion US dollars of investment, and become the largest and broadest platform for international cooperation in the world. It has also become the largest practical platform for building a community with a shared future for mankind. All this is inseparable from the great success of Chinese-style modernization.

 

1949年新中国成立以来,毛泽东主席领导下的前30年,奠定了中国式现代化的政治、经济、社会基础。1978年改革开放以来的40多年,中国取得了现代化建设的腾飞,中国几乎是以10年左右完成一场工业革命的速度,实现了我称之为集四次工业革命为一体的崛起。

Since the founding of New China in 1949, the first 30 years under the leadership of Chairman Mao Zedong have laid the political, economic and social foundation of Chinese-style modernization. In more than 40 years since the reform and opening up in 1978, China has achieved the take-off of modernization and completed what I would call the rise of four industrial revolutions in one, almost at the rate of one industrial revolution in about 10 years.

 

今天,中国已经站在第四次工业革命的最前沿,中国也因此而成为数不多的真正突破了全球叫做外围中心依附体系的国家,而且是一个巨大的超大型的社会主义国家。这意味着今天的中国已经同时是外围国家以及发展中国家和中兴国家,也就西方国家的最大的贸易伙伴、技术伙伴、资金伙伴。这一切永远改变了中国,改变了世界。

Today, China has stood at the forefront of the fourth Industrial Revolution. As a result, China has become one of the few countries that have really broken through the global peripheral-central attachment system, and it is a huge and super-large socialist country. This means that today's China is already the largest trading partner, technical partner and financial partner of the peripheral countries, the developing countries and central countries, that is, the West, at the same time. All this has changed China and the world forever.

 

正是基于这个判断,我们在中美贸易战、科技战爆发的2018年,就非常明确地准确地判断,美国将输掉它发动的中美贸易战和中美科技战,而且会输得很惨。实践证明,我们的预测判断是正确的。集四次工业革命为一体的实例和对外围中心依附体系的突破,使中国可以发起“一带一路”倡议。今天这个倡议已经成为推动改革现有的极不合理的世界秩序的主要的引擎。这个引擎既有硬实力又有软实力。

It is based on this judgment that when the Sino-US trade war and science and technology war broke out in 2018, we made a very clear and accurate judgment that the United States would lose the Sino-US trade war and the Sino-US science and technology war launched by it, and would lose miserably. Practice has proved that our prediction is correct. The example of integrating the four industrial revolutions and the breakthrough of the peripheral-central attachment system enabled China to launch the Belt and Road Initiative. Today this initiative has become the main engine for promoting the reform of the existing extremely unreasonable world order. This engine has both hard power and soft power.

 

就硬实力而言,中国现在具有全世界最大的全产业链的优势,可以为许多国家的许多行业提供整体解决方案,英文叫做total solution。从基础设施到重化工业到数字革命,都是这样的。比方说在过去十年里,中国在非洲参与建设了6000多公里的铁路,6000多公里的公路,80多个大型的电力设施。

In terms of hard power, China now has the largest advantage of the whole industry chain in the world, and can provide overall solutions for many industries in many countries. It is called total solution in English. This is true from infrastructure to heavy chemical industry to the digital revolution. In the past decade, for example, China has participated in the construction of more than 6,000 kilometers of railways, more than 6,000 kilometers of roads and more than 80 large-scale power facilities in Africa.

 

其实两年左右的时间里,中国就帮助苏丹、乍得、土库曼斯坦等国家建立了上下游一体化的现代石油化工体系。同时中国自己就是世界最大的消费市场,可以吸收和消化共建国家的大量的产品。中国可以向外部世界提供从第一次工业革命到第四次工业革命的几乎所有的产品和服务,这是其他任何一个国家目前还做不到的。

In fact, within two years or so, China has helped Sudan, Chad, Turkmenistan and other countries to establish a modern petrochemical system with integrated upstream and downstream. At the same time, China itself is the world's largest consumer market, which can absorb and digest a large number of products from cooperating countries. China can provide the outside world with almost all the products and services from the first industrial revolution to the fourth industrial revolution, which no other country can do yet.

 

同样,“一带一路”、金砖机制等所带动的全球南方的崛起已经震撼世界。今天我们甚至可以这样说,在全球南方的内部,要资源有资源,要资金有资金,要市场有市场,要技术有技术,要思想有思想,这一切为改变现在这个极不公正的世界秩序,提供了重要的实力。我觉得这个是我们整个全球南方的实力所在,这个不合理的秩序一定要改革,一定要改变。我前面讲到要思想,有思想,指的就是软实力。

Similarly, the rise of the Global South, driven by the Belt and Road Initiative, the BRICS mechanism and others, has shaken the world. Today we can even say that, within the Global South, there must be resources, funds , markets, technologies, and ideas, all of which provide important strengths for changing the extremely unjust world order that exists now. I think this is where the strength of our entire Global South lies, and this unjust order must be reformed, must be changed. When I spoke above about ideas, I was referring to soft power.

 

“一带一路”坚持的共商共建共享原则,就是推动改革旧秩序的重要的软实力。这个原则,这个理念源于中国式现代化的伟大实践,也源于源远流长的中华文明。这确实是一种全新的全球治理观,也是国际政治民主化的重要实践。它背后的逻辑和西方奉行的分而治之的逻辑截然不同,它是中国人笃信的“合则兴”。西方(奉行的)是分而治之的逻辑(divide and rule logic)。

The Belt and Road Initiative's principle of extensive consultation,joint contribution,shared benefits is an important soft power to promote the reform of the old order. This principle, this idea stems from the great practice of Chinese-style modernization, but also from the long-standing Chinese civilization. This is indeed a new concept of global governance, and it is also an important practice of international political democratization. The logic behind it is completely different from the logic of divide and rule pursued by the West. It is the "unite and prosper" that the Chinese people believe in. What the West pursues is divide and rule logic.

 

我们(奉行的)是合则兴的逻辑(unite and prosper logic)。还有这个天下为公的逻辑。中国式现代化就是这样,一路走来,在中国内部取得了成功。“一带一路”也是这样走来,取得了丰硕的成果,当然还有不少挑战。实践证明,共商、共建、共享,和则兴,天下为公等理念所代表的是越走越宽广的人间正道。

What we are pursuing is unite and prosper logic. And  we are pursuing “the world belongs to all the people” logic. This is the case with Chinese-style modernization. Along the way, it has achieved success within China. The Belt and Road Initiative also came in this way and achieved fruitful results. Of course, there are still many challenges. Practice has proved that the concepts of “extensive consultation,joint contribution,shared benefits”, “harmony is prosperity” and “the world belongs to all the people” represent the broader and broader path of righteousness on earth.

 

总之,我相信整个非西方世界,整个全球南方的硬实力、软实力的结合,一定会加速旧秩序的深刻变革,造福最广大的人民,最广大的国家。我想这就我今天的给大家的分享,谢谢大家。

In short, I believe that the combination of hard and soft power throughout the non-Western world and the Global South will accelerate the profound transformation of the old order for the benefit of the greatest number of people and countries. I think this is all I have to share with you today, thank you.